Harry Kane – 11/2
Harry Kane is the favourite at mr.play Sports to be the top goalscorer. He is definitely England’s biggest weapon having won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup. Kane has scored 34 times in 53 appearances for England and he will be captaining the team at this tournament. However, what some fail to take into account is that he has played in four Euro Cup finals matches and scored a total of zero goals. Nonetheless, if he displays the same form as he did in the Premier League this season and at the previous World Cup, there is no denying that he is a very strong contender.
Romelu Lukaku – 13/2
Romelu Lukaku is not far behind Kane in terms of odds. He is Belgium’s leading goalscorer with 60 goals for his country and he is coming to the tournament after an excellent season with Serie A champions Inter Milan. Belgium are in a group with Denmark, Finland and Russia, any many believe that this will give Lukaku opportunity to score heavily in the opening stage of the tournament, regardless of whether Belgium progress to the knockout rounds. Belgium scored six against Denmark in two Nations League games last year, two of them coming from Lukaku in their second meeting.
Kylian Mbappe – 17/2
Mbappe was tied in second place for the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup with four goals. While he is just 21 years old, he already has a huge amount of international experience. He has played 39 matches for France and has scored 16 international goals. This season Mbappe scored 42 goals and provided 11 assists across 47 appearances in all competitions for Paris Saint-Germain. With France the favourites to win the tournament, suggesting they should at the very least make it to the early knockout stages, then Mbappe should have plenty of opportunities to score.
Cristiano Ronaldo – 12/1
There is no denying that Ronaldo played a huge part in Portugal’s success at the previous Euro tournament. In fact, many believe that he was almost solely responsible for the team making it to the finals. He has scored 9 goals in the 21 Euro matches that he has played, which means that he has a roughly 41% chance of scoring in every match that he starts. Ronaldo has a young and talented team supporting him, but they will also be facing some very tough opposition early in the tournament. As such, his chances of winning the Golden Boot may largely depend on how far the team are able to progress.
Antoine Griezmann – 22/1
Antoine Griezmann won the Golden Boot at the last euro and he will be hoping to do so again. While Barcelona may not have had the best season, he still managed to score 19 goals across all competitions, and he has a great record for his country. He has scored two goals in three appearances during World Cup qualifying and while he only scored three goals in Euro qualifying, he provided an impressive nine assists, showing just how important he is to the team. Griezmann has an excellent track record at major tournaments, scoring four goals at the last World cup, and he is also a solid penalty taker. As such, he is certainly one to watch over the coming weeks.
Robert Lewandowski – 22/1
While Poland are not expect to go far in the tournament, many consider Robert Lewandowski to be Europe’s best striker, and as such, he deserves a mention here. He has had a great season with Bayern Munich and he will have at least four games in which to try to score heavily. Lewandowski scored 48 goals in 40 appearances in all competitions for his club, so you can expect to see Poland relying on him when they face Slovakia, Spain and Sweden in the group stage. Furthermore, Slovakia is a team that is known to concede goals, which could give Lewandowski the chance to score heavily.
Previous Golden Boot Winner Statistics
Looking at previous tournaments, any player who scores at least three goals has a chance of being the top goalscorer. However, occasionally it can be as high as six. Examining the past five European Championships, Antoine Grizesmann was the top scorer in 2016 with 6 goals, there were six players tied with 3 goals each in 2012, David Villa took it with 4 in 2007, Milan Baros with 5 in 2004, and Savo Milosevic and Patrick Kluivert were tied in 2000 with 5 goals each. This means that the average number over the past five tournaments is 4.6 goals.
Looking at the World Cup, which is the only comparable major international tournament, the numbers are very similar. Harry Kane won the Golden Boot in 2018 with 6 goals, James Rodriguez scored 6 in 2014, in 2010, Diego Forlan, Thomas Muller, Wesley Sneijder, and David Villa all scored 5, in 2006 Miroslav Klose scored 5, and in 2002 Ronaldo scored 8.
When considering the past ten Euros and World Cup tournaments combined, the average top goalscorer has scored 5.3 goals. It makes sense that the average is slightly high at the World Cup as the teams play more games. However, it is only 0.7 goals higher on average, which demonstrates just how important the goals are in the group stage.
Euros Qualifying Top Goalscorers
Of course, when assessing who is likely to be the tournament’s top scorer, it makes sense to look at the qualifying matches. Harry Kane was top of the scoring charts with 12 goals from his 22 shots, giving him a 55% goal conversion rate. He was followed by Cristiano Ronaldo with 11, Teemu Pukki with 10, Arten Dzyuba with 9, and Raheem Sterling, Georginio Wijnaldum and Serge Gnabry all with 8.
Lukaku, who is the second favourite to win the Golden Boot, scored seven goals in qualifying. However, he did not play as many games as those above him in the charts and he averaged a highly impressive 1.56 goals per 90 minutes during qualifying. However, it was actually Olivier Giroud who was Frances’ leading goalscorer, while he is an outsider at mr.play Sports with odds of 40/1.
Does the Top Goalscorer Always Reach the Final?
It is obvious that the further a team progresses in a tournament, the better chance the players have of becoming the top goalscorer. That is one of the reasons why Harry Kane is one of the favourites, with England widely expected to reach the tournament’s final stages, and possibly even the final in London.
In 2016, the tournament was expanded to accommodate 24 teams and the same format is being used this time. This means that there will be a knockout game before the quarterfinals and that the teams that reach the finals will have to play seven matches in total. This is one game more than in 2012 when just three goals were needed to win the Golden Boot.
The last three top scorers made it to the final, but each team will play at least three matches in the group stages. In 2000, Milosevic, who shared the Golden Boot with Patrick Kluivert, only made it to the quarterfinals, and he scored four of his five goals before the knockout stages. Therefore, while it is usual for the top goalscorer to play in the final, it is by no means a certainty.
Which Teams Will Go the Furthest?
France is the favourite at mr.play to win the tournament with odds of 9/2 and they have looked very strong ever since winning the World Cup. It is a very talented team, but some believe that their lack of home advantage at any point over the course of the tournament could cause them problems.
That is one of the reason why England are not far behind France with odds of 5/1. England reached the World Cup semi-finals three years ago and many of the players have flourished since then, making the team even stronger. Of course, Harry Kane has been widely discussed in this article, and if England have the run that many predict, he should have plenty of chances to score.
Belgium also has a good chance of reaching the later stages of the tournament. They also reached the World Cup semi-final in 2018, and the team are sure to be determined to win their first ever trophy. They have a number of very talented players and it would be a surprise to see them knocked out early.
Of course, there are many other teams expected to do well, such as Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. When picking your top scorer, anyone from these teams deserves careful consideration.